I talked about this yesterday. Here is a more in-depth analysis by Dan McLaughlin of RedState. In particular, he notes some things I did not:
Option Two: Obama refuses to debate Palin
Potential upsides for McCain:
(1) After weeks of pushing the story that Palin is afraid of reporters, the media has to report that she was willing to face off against Obama and he was afraid of her.
(2) Obama faces the possibility that he comes off as thinking debating Palin is beneath him, which plays into the issues above as well as more general problems with the image of him as simultaneously arrogant, full of himself and glass-jawed.
(3) The media has prepped like crazy for Friday. They have hotel reservations in Mississippi. They won’t be happy if there is no debate.
Downsides:
Honestly, I don’t see one. The Obama camp would spin this as a gimmick, but everything that happens in campaigns is a gimmick. They would argue that McCain’s afraid to debate Obama (he is apparently playing this now as “McCain can’t multitask”) but everybody already knows McCain’s ready to be Commander-in-Chief, and all Obama does then is lower expectations for McCain entering the last two debates. The only loss is if Obama then argues that he doesn’t need any debates at all on national security and refuses to reschedule a third debate, but that is unlikely to go well for him.
